(Washington) – A new non-partisan survey by the Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI) released Thursday shows very high levels of Jewish voters backing Kamala Harris and Democrats in the 2024 elections. The poll, conducted for the Jewish Electorate Institute by The Mellman Group from October 30 to November 8 among more than 1000 respondents, reveals that 71 percent of Jewish voters cast their ballot for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, with a comparable. In comparison, only 26 percent voted for Donald Trump.

While many of the findings are consistent with other major polls from the election and exit polls, this JEI survey’s large sample size and methodology provided an especially unique, valuable and reliable measure of Jewish voter behavior. It also gave previously unreported insight into voters’ motivations in casting their ballot. 

The JEI poll evinces high rates of continuing support for Israel and mounting concerns about antisemitism, though these issues appear to have had limited impact on voting behavior. Nearly all Jewish voters (87 percent) describe themselves as pro-Israel, with most supporting Harris. However, Trump won among those who identify most strongly with Israel, and who cited Israel as a key reason for their support. Harris voters cited a wider range of reasons for their support of the Vice President, with Israel and antisemitism ranking in the lower tier.

Jewish voters continue to support Democratic candidates by a substantial margin, while Republicans have made modest gains in recent cycles. Nonetheless, Democrats turned in their weakest performance among Jewish voters since 2012, with some polls indicating drop-offs in Jewish support ranging from four to 11 points over 2012 to 2024. 

Since 2012, Jewish support for the Democratic Presidential candidate has ranged in a narrow band from 69% to 71%. Republicans hit their recent high in 2012 but made slight gains in 2020 and 2024 after losing significant support in 2016. Using the averages for 2024, the margin for the Democratic candidate declined by six points since 2016. Comparing the three surveys of Jewish voters conducted by the same researcher in both 2020 and 2024 on a one-to-one basis, shows a decrease of 4 to 11 points in the Democratic margin in each poll since the last election.

The poll found considerable variation among Jewish voters’ behavior based on Jewish denominational self-identity. Reform (84 percent), Conservative movement (75 percent), and non-denominational/unaffiliated Jews (70 percent) strongly supported Harris, while Orthodox communities broke overwhelmingly for Trump (74 percent). 

Despite Harris having a higher favorability factor and being seen as stronger than antisemitism, Trump holds a slight edge in support for Israel, which was one of the top reasons to vote for him. Trump voters also cited support for him due to his opposition to Iran, as well as immigration (61 percent) and economic (55 percent). Meanwhile, Harris voters cited Trump’s threat to democracy (80 percent) and her defense of abortion rights (63 percent) as the most important reasons to vote for her.

No significant differences were found in the electoral behavior of women and men, with 72 percent of women and 70 percent of men supporting Harris. Variations among age groups were also evident: the 60+ demographic gave 74 percent of its votes to the Democratic nominee in this presidential election, compared to 70 percent of those 18-39. Higher synagogue attendance also appeared to correlate with reduced support for the Democratic candidate: 81 percent of Jews never attending services selected Harris, while 61 percent of those going more than once a month did so. Less than a quarter (22 percent) voting, in general, for almost all or mostly for the Republican Party, and 6 percent of voters report casting a split ticket.

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The Jewish Electorate Institute, a nonprofit 501(c)3 organization, promotes civic engagement and voter participation among American Jews and has been commissioning polls since its inception a decade ago. 

The Mellman Group has been producing high-quality polling for over two decades. Mark Mellman is the past president of the American Association of Political Consultants. 

This analysis is based on a national post-election survey of 1,093 Jewish voters who cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election. Interviews were conducted online by YouGov through their randomly selected panel during October 31-November 8, 2024. The sample utilized a matching method to reflect the Jewish electorate; screening for Jewish identity and having already voted. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% level of confidence, and higher for subgroups. 

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NOVEMBER 17, 2024 12:31 ET

BY GABY WINE

A new poll of Jewish voters has revealed that the Orthodox community voted overwhelmingly in favour of Trump, with 74 per cent casting their vote for the Republican president-elect.

The president-elect was also given the backing of Jews who identified most closely with Israel, who said that Trump’s stance was one of the main reasons for their voting choice. Forty-eight per cent of all respondents of the Jewish Electorate Institute’s survey saying they believed Trump would be a stronger supporter of Israel than Biden.

But, according to figures, released by the non-partisan Jewish Electorate Institute, the Orthodox community was the only Jewish group which backed Trump by a majority.

Reform, Conservative and non-denominational and unaffiliated Jews all gave their vote to Democratic candidate Kamala Harris at a rate of 84, 75 and 70 per cent respectively.

These numbers suggest that non-Orthodox Jews were one of the most consistently supportive constituencies for Democrats. By contrast, nearly every other socio-economic group shifted their vote to Trump from the 2020 elections, most notably Hispanic voters, who awarded Trump an additional 25 points, according to an exit poll by Edison Research.

While the JEI poll, which surveyed 1,000 Jewish respondents between October 30 and November 8, said that Democrats “turned in their weakest performance” from Jewish voters since 2012, with drop-offs in support ranging from four to 11 points, the figures showed that Trump only made modest gains among Jewish voters.

Kamala Harris still had the overwhelming support of the Jewish population in general, with 71 per cent of their vote going to the Democratic candidate compared to 26 per cent for Trump.

Jeremy Ben-Ami, president of J Street, a pro-Israel, pro-peace, pro-democracy organisation, wrote soon after the election: “Mainstream Jewish voters remain a steadfast pillar of Democratic support, rejecting the MAGA [Trump’s “Make America Great Again” mantra] agenda despite cynical efforts to divide our community with fear-mongering over Israel and antisemitism.”

However, the direction of the “Jewish vote” has been contested since the start of the election. An exit poll carried out by Fox News showed that Trump won 32 per cent of the vote among the Jewish community, which would have been the strongest show of support for a Republican candidate since the 1988 election of George W. Bush. But it would still only mark a two percentage point improvement for Trump since the 2020 election.

A poll of Jewish voters conducted by the Orthodox Union’s Teach Coalition said that the race between the two candidates was much closer among Jewish voters in some states than in national polling, with Harris winning by just seven points among Jews in Pennsylvania and eight points in New York.

“Jewish votes are up for grabs in key contested races and states,” the group wrote. “They are not voting monolithically or overwhelmingly Democratic.”

The Jewish Electorate Institute commissioned the Mellman Group, which is run by Mark Mellman, the president of Democratic Majority for Israel, to carry out its poll.

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(Washington) – A new non-partisan survey by the Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI) released Thursday shows very high levels of Jewish voters backing Kamala Harris and Democrats in the 2024 elections.

The poll, conducted for the Jewish Electorate Institute by The Mellman Group from October 30 to November 8 among more than 1000 respondents, reveals that 71 percent of Jewish voters cast their ballot for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, with a comparable. In comparison, only 26 percent voted for Donald Trump.

While many of the findings are consistent with other major polls from the election and exit polls, this JEI survey’s large sample size and methodology provided an especially unique, valuable and reliable measure of Jewish voter behavior. It also gave previously unreported insight into voters’ motivations in casting their ballot. The JEI poll evinces high rates of continuing support for Israel and mounting concerns about antisemitism, though these issues appear to have had limited impact on voting behavior.

Nearly all Jewish voters (87 percent) describe themselves as pro-Israel, with most supporting Harris. However, Trump won among those who identify most strongly with Israel, and who cited Israel as a key reason for their support. Harris voters cited a wider range of reasons for their support of the Vice President, with Israel and antisemitism ranking in the lower tier. Jewish voters continue to support Democratic candidates by a substantial margin, while Republicans have made modest gains in recent cycles.

Nonetheless, Democrats turned in their weakest performance among Jewish voters since 2012, with some polls indicating drop-offs in Jewish support ranging from four to 11 points over 2012 to 2024. Since 2012, Jewish support for the Democratic Presidential candidate has ranged in a narrow band from 69% to 71%. Republicans hit their recent high in 2012 but made slight gains in 2020 and 2024 after losing significant support in 2016. Using the averages for 2024, the margin for the Democratic candidate declined by six points since 2016. Comparing the three surveys of Jewish voters conducted by the same researcher in both 2020 and 2024 on a one-to-one basis, shows a decrease of 4 to 11 points in the Democratic margin in each poll since the last election.

The poll found considerable variation among Jewish voters’ behavior based on Jewish denominational self-identity. Reform (84 percent), Conservative movement (75 percent), and non-denominational/unaffiliated Jews (70 percent) strongly supported Harris, while Orthodox communities broke overwhelmingly for Trump (74 percent). Despite Harris having a higher favorability factor and being seen as stronger than antisemitism, Trump holds a slight edge in support for Israel, which was one of the top reasons to vote for him. Trump voters also cited support for him due to his opposition to Iran, as well as immigration (61 percent) and economic (55 percent).

Meanwhile, Harris voters cited Trump’s threat to democracy (80 percent) and her defense of abortion rights (63 percent) as the most important reasons to vote for her.No significant differences were found in the electoral behavior of women and men, with 72 percent of women and 70 percent of men supporting Harris. Variations among age groups were also evident: the 60+ demographic gave 74 percent of its votes to the Democratic nominee in this presidential election, compared to 70 percent of those 18-39. Higher synagogue attendance also appeared to correlate with reduced support for the Democratic candidate: 81 percent of Jews never attending services selected Harris, while 61 percent of those going more than once a month did so. Less than a quarter (22 percent) voting, in general, for almost all or mostly for the Republican Party, and 6 percent of voters report casting a split ticket.

###

The Jewish Electorate Institute, a nonprofit 501(c)3 organization, promotes civic engagement and voter participation among American Jews and has been commissioning polls since its inception a decade ago. 

The Mellman Group has been producing high-quality polling for over two decades. Mark Mellman is the past president of the American Association of Political Consultants. This analysis is based on a national post-election survey of 1,093 Jewish voters who cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election.

Interviews were conducted online by YouGov through their randomly selected panel during October 31-November 8, 2024. The sample utilized a matching method to reflect the Jewish electorate; screening for Jewish identity and having already voted. The margin of error is +/- 3% at the 95% level of confidence, and higher for subgroups. 

See below for attached memo by The Mellman Group

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POLITICS

November 16, 202311:17 AM ET

Sarah McCammon

Nearly three-quarters of Jewish Americans said they approve of President Biden’s response to Israel’s war against Hamas, in a new survey by the Jewish Electorate Institute, which calls itself “an independent, non-partisan organization dedicated to deepening the public’s understanding of Jewish American participation in our democracy.”

The survey of 800 Jewish voters was taken about a month after Hamas terrorist attacks against Israel left more than 1,200 people dead, according to the Israeli government. Israel has responded with attacks on Gaza that Palestinian officials say have killed more than 11,000 people.

Eighty percent of survey respondents also said they support a proposal to send more than $14 billion in U.S. military aid to Israel.

Some agreement across party lines, with a generation gap 

Halie Soifer, CEO of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, a pro-Israel group that supports Democrats, says Biden’s response to the war has garnered broad support from American Jews.

“Jewish voters are very supportive of the president’s policy as it relates to Israel and how he’s handling the war,” she explained. “And that appears to even supersede any partisan divides.”

While a strong majority of Jewish voters have historically voted for Democrats, Republican voters as a whole express stronger support for Israel. Republican presidential candidates have expressed staunch support for the war effort, including at the most recent primary debate, which was co-hosted by the Republican Jewish Coalition. 

Soifer says support for Democrats remains strong despite what she called a “misconception…that somehow because Republicans have tried to politicize this, that Jewish voters may be leaving the Democratic Party or may be leaving their support of President Biden amid this crisis” – an idea she called “patently false.”

The survey also revealed a significant generation gap in support for Biden’s handling of the war. Voters over age 36 were far more supportive than younger voters, a trend that’s also been showing up in the U.S. population as a whole. 

Support for Biden, but not Netanyahu

Meanwhile, more than six in 10 Jewish voters expressed an unfavorable view of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, whose approval ratings in Israel have also fallen since the Hamas attack. Ninety-one percent also said they believe it’s possible to be “pro-Israel” while criticizing Israeli government policies.

The overwhelming majority of Jewish voters surveyed, 93 percent, said they’re worried about rising antisemitism, and more respondents said they trusted Biden and Democrats to fight antisemitism as compared with former President Donald Trump and Republicans. 

Meanwhile, an NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist poll released this week shows that a growing number Americans – 38 % – believe Israel’s military response to the Hamas attack has been too much. Most of the growth in that number came from Democrats. In that survey, another 38% thought Israel’s response had been about right, and 17% said it was too little. 

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October 10, 2024

With the November election less than a month away, we’re focusing our attention on the under-the-radar — but highly consequential — battle for the House, where the GOP’s narrow majority is hanging in the balance and will be determined by a small number of battleground-district races, Jewish Insider Editor-in-Chief Josh Kraushaar writes.

As we’ve noted, Jewish voters make up a political force in about one-fourth of the 42 most-competitive House races (as designated by the Cook Political Report ratings). 

According to a new analysis published last month by the Jewish Electorate Institute, Jewish voters comprise a significant percentage of the electorate in two New York districts — 19% in the Westchester County-based seat held by Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) and 14% of the vote in the Long Island-based seat held by Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY).

Lawler’s district has the fifth-largest share of Jewish voters in the country, while D’Esposito’s district ranks eighth. The other politically competitive district to rank in the top 25 of largest Jewishrepresentation is the lower Hudson Valley district of Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY), where 10% of the district’s voters are Jewish. Another district of note: The suburban Phoenix seat of Rep. Dave Schweikert (R-AZ), where about 9% of the district voters are Jewish.

The next tier of districts all feature around 4-5% Jewishrepresentation, which could certainly make the difference in close contests. The suburban Las Vegas seat of Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) is next on the list, followed by the Los Angeles-area seat of Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA), the northern New Jersey seat of Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) and the exurban New York seat of Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY).

Rounding out the list of lawmakers representing swing districts with politically pivotal Jewish constituencies are: Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA) in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-PA) outside Pittsburgh and Jahana Hayes (D-CT) in suburban Connecticut — along with the open Orange County, Calif., seat of outgoing Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA).

There’s little doubt that lawmakers’ support for the U.S.-Israel alliance and commitment to fight against antisemitism could make a difference in what are expected to be close contests. 

For instance: Lawler’s leadership on issues of concern to the Jewish community has given him a good chance to win a second term, even though his district comfortably backed President Joe Biden in 2020. His Democratic opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY), has also been a vocal supporter of Israel of late — and was one of the more prominent Democrats to speak out against neighboring anti-Israel Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) in his bid for reelection.

Over the next month, we’ll be profiling many of these critical races — and reporting closely on the lawmakers’ records, their challengers and the salience of Middle East policy and antisemitism on the campaign trail. With the battle for the House potentially coming down to a few seats, the impact of the Jewish vote has rarely been greater.

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A new analysis from the non-partisan Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI) indicates that Jewish voters could play a decisive role in determining control of Congress and the White House in the 2024 elections. Conducted by Population Mapping Consulting and Research alongside the Jewish Demography Project at the University of Miami, the September 2024 analysis reviews available data to calculate the influence of Jewish voters across all 435 Congressional districts and key swing states.

Jewish voters, who now comprise over 5.5 million Americans, are expected to have an outsized impact in several tossup districts and battleground states. The total Jewish population has grown from about 6 million in 1970 to over 7.7 million in 2024. With Jewish adults of voting age representing approximately 77% of the total Jewish population – and also routinely turning out in disproportionate numbers – their influence is expected to be particularly strong in key Senate and Presidential races.

Key Findings:

• High Voter Turnout: Jewish voters consistently turn out at some of the highest rates of any ethnic group, positioning them as pivotal in tight Senate, gubernatorial and House races with significant Jewish populations.
• Swing Districts: Key battleground Congressional districts such as NY-17 and NY-4, among the top ten target districts in the country, and with Jewish populations of 19% and 14.4% respectively, could be significantly impacted by Jewish voters in races with historically narrow margins. In 2020, these districts had only 332,000 and 360,000 total votes cast, respectively, for Congress.
• On average, nearly all US Congressional districts each have approximately 760,000 total residents.
• Impact on Swing States, where Jewish population is a notable percentage of overall population, the Jewish vote may also have substantial impact on key Senate and other statewide races:
  • Pennsylvania: Nearly 350,000 Jews (in the state with the seventh-most Jewish residents as a percentage of its overall population) could influence this critical state’s 19 electoral votes and tight Senate race. In 2020, President Biden won the state by a margin of just 80,000 votes out of seven million cast.
  • Arizona: With 130,000 Jewish voters (14th-most as a percentage of its overall vote), this group could be critical in the state’s Senate race and its 11 presidential electoral votes.
  • Michigan: A state with 130,000 Jewish voters and 16 electoral votes may also see the Jewish electorate determine the outcome of its Senate race. Biden won Michigan by a slim margin of 10,000 votes in 2020.

• Other Key States:
  • Maryland: With a quarter-of-a million Jews (4th largest percentage), Maryland’s Jewish voters could play a significant role in the state’s open Senate seat contest.
  • Georgia: While the Jewish population in Georgia is only 1.3%, it still hosts 150,000 Jews, which could make the difference in tight Senate and Presidential races. Biden won the 2020 presidential by fewer than 12,000 votes.
  • Ohio: With 177,000 Jews (18th largest percentage), Ohio’s Jewish electorate easily could have an impact in the state’s close Senate race.
  • North Carolina: Although North Carolina has a smaller Jewish population of only 100,000, they could still help decide a contentious gubernatorial campaign.

Estimated Jewish Population by County, 2024:
This map shows the distribution of Jewish populations across U.S. counties, highlighting regions with the highest concentrations, particularly in urban areas like New York, Los Angeles, and Miami.

Jewish Population by State, 2024:
This table provides detailed data on the number of Jewish residents in each U.S. state, along with their percentage of the state’s total population and the overall U.S. Jewish population.

Jewish voters are not only concentrated in high-profile states but also in other key, swing Congressional districts. For example:

• NV-3: This district has 41,500 Jews, who may have a significant role in deciding the outcome.
• CA-27: With 30,000 Jewish adults, this district is another critical battleground.
• NJ-7: Home to more than 30,000 Jews, this district could also see a major influence from the Jewish electorate.
• NY-19: Hosting over 28,000 Jews, this district is another target in the upcoming elections.

Estimated Percent Jewish Population for Districts of the 119th U.S. Congress:

This map illustrates the percentage of Jewish residents in each Congressional district, with key states such as New York, New Jersey, and California standing out as having districts with significant Jewish populations.

“Jews turn out and vote in just about the highest percentages of any ethnic American bloc,” says JEI board chair Hope Eastman. “Combined with this year’s election map and its key races, Jews are positioned to play an even more disproportionate role than usual.”

Methodology:

This national survey was conducted by Population Mapping Consulting and Research and the Jewish Demography Project at the University of Miami in September, 2024 for the Jewish Electoral Institute. The survey identified Jewish populations across all 435 Congressional districts and Washington, DC, using innovative methodologies to account for previously undercounted Jewish populations in rural and suburban areas. The top target races were determined by the Cook Political Report and analysis from the New York Times.

The post September 2024 Analysis of National Survey of Jewish Voters appeared first on Jewish Electorate Institute.

Respondents compared President Biden with former President Trump and third-party candidates in a 2024 general election scenario. In a head-to-head matchup, 67% of Jewish voters say they would support President Biden over former President Trump, who would have the support of only 26% of Jewish voters. 

Respondents also indicated high levels of attachment to the State of Israel and the Democratic Party. 57% percent of respondents described themselves as Democrats, 27% as independents, and only 14% identified as Republicans. 81% of Jewish voters processed being somewhat or very emotionally attached to Israel.

Other key takeaways from the poll include:

• President Biden has a job approval of 62% among Jewish voters and maintains a significantly higher approval rating than among the general population
• President Biden is trusted far more than Donald Trump to fight antisemitism (58-20%)
• 93% of respondents are concerned about antisemitism in the US
• 93% of respondents believe antisemitism is a problem on College Campuses

Click here for the survey data.
Click here for a PDF of the survey.

Very Democratic & Liberal Constituency

Biden Has Overwhelming Lead Over Trump Among Jewish Voters

Jews Hold Positive Views Of Biden/Democrats & Are Very Negative Toward Trump/Republicans

Future Of Democracy Is Top Issue For 2024 Election, Followed By Abortion, Inflation/Economy, & Israel

Democracy Is The Top Issue For Reform, Conservative, No Denomination

Biden Job Approval
Is Strong; Highest Among Older Voters

Attachment To Israel High

Concern About Antisemitism Is Universally High Among American Jews

Biden & Democrats Continue To Be More Trusted To Fight Antisemitism Than Trump & Republicans

Bigotry Seen As Serious Problem In US & On Campuses; Antisemitism Viewed As Bigger Problem Than Racism & Islamophobia

Younger Voters Less Concerned With Antisemitism
Than Older Voters

Methodology

• GBAO designed the questionnaire for this national survey of American Jews for the Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI). The survey was conducted April 16-21, 2024 and included interviews with 800 self- identified American Jews who are registered to vote. The survey is subject to a margin of error of +/- 3.5 percentage points at the 95 percent confidence level. Sub-groups are subject to a higher margin of error.
• The survey sample was drawn from a national voter file, consisting of all registered voters in the United States. Respondents with a likelihood of being Jewish, based on their first or last name or their geography, were contacted by text, and then took the survey on a secure link on their phone or computer if they identified themselves as Jewish.
• All respondents were asked at the beginning of the survey whether they consider themselves Jewish, using the same question wording as the 2020 Pew Research Center study, “Jewish Americans in 2020.”
• The sample was weighted to Pew’s demographic results on key variables, such as gender, denomination, age, and synagogue membership.

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Washington, DC – President Biden continues to draw on broad support from the American Jewish community, according to a poll, results of which were released today by the Jewish Electoral Institute (JEI). JEI is an independent, non-partisan organization dedicated to deepening the public’s understanding of Jewish American participation in our democracy.

The JEI poll of 800 Jewish Americans all but mirrors a similar poll taken weeks apart and also released this month by the American Jewish Committee (AJC) of 1001 Jews online. The two polls ask virtually the same questions and summaries of findings of key questions from both polls are attached.

Over 60 percent of respondents in each survey say they would vote for President Biden’s reelection were the ballot held at the time of the poll (JEI 67-26%; AJC 61-23%). Both polls also indicate that President Biden is trusted far more than his Republican opponent to fight antisemitism, with more than twice as many American Jews selecting him as the better choice to lead on that important issue (AJC, 55-20%; JEI, 58-20%).

“President Biden will again be able to draw on solid, unwavering backing of Jewish Americans this fall,” said Martin Frost, the chairman of JEI and a former congressman. “What both polls demonstrate is that despite press coverage and speculation to the contrary, American Jews largely remain committed to this administration and to the Democratic Party.”

JEI’s poll also indicates high levels of attachment among American Jews to both the state of Israel and the Democratic Party. Fifty-seven percent of respondents describe themselves as Democrats; 27 percent describe themselves as independents; and only 14 percent identify as Republicans. A whopping 81 percent professed being “totally attached to the state of Israel.”

JEI’s poll was conducted by the polling firm GBAO among 800 Jewish American adults from April 16-21, 2024. Its findings are attached.

AJC’s survey, released June 10, was based on interviews conducted online between March 12 – April 6, 2024 and carried out by SSRS among 1,001 American Jewish adults. Findings are also attached.

Both polls reflect representative samplings of Orthodox, Conservative, and Reform movement Jews and those of no particular denomination or other. They also accurately split political party affiliation among American Jews, with substantially more identifying as Democrats.

The full JEI survey data can be found here

The findings from AJC’s survey can be found here

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